Argentina, with 35 points, is already qualified for the World Cup. This match also doubles as a likely emotional farewell appearance for Lionel Messi in a qualifier at home .
Ecuador and Brazil, both sitting on 25 points, have also secured their direct spots in the tournament .
Who’s Still in the Race?
Three direct qualification spots remain up for grabs, with Uruguay and Paraguay both collecting 24 points, while Colombia trails a bit behind at 22 points .
Venezuela, with 18 points, sits in the seventh spot, which would place them in the intercontinental playoff, but they’re still dreaming of a direct qualification if results go their way .
Bolivia, at 17 points, remains within mathematical contention, while Peru (12 points) and Chile (10 points) are too far behind to realistically challenge .
What Venezuela Needs ?
To clinch direct qualification, Venezuela must win against both Argentina and Colombia, and rely on favorable results from other teams—especially that Colombia does not beat Bolivia .
To at least reach the playoff spot, a win or draw versus Colombia—combined with Bolivia failing to beat Brazil and Peru failing to garner points—would keep their hopes alive .
Match-by-Match Prediction Highlights
Colombia vs Bolivia (Sep 5 in Barranquilla): Colombia are heavy favorites at home and even a draw may be enough to guarantee their direct qualification. Bolivia’s hopes hinge on securing a win and seeing Venezuela slip up .
Paraguay vs Ecuador: Paraguay, especially at home, have looked solid and need just a point to virtually guarantee qualification. Ecuador remain unbeaten and defensively strong .
Argentina vs Venezuela: Argentina are overwhelming favorites given their strong form, home advantage, and Venezuela’s poor away record. Still, for Venezuela, this is a pivotal opportunity to boost their own chances .
Additional Fixtures (Sep 5):
Uruguay vs Peru
Brazil vs Chile
Colombia vs Bolivia
Summary Table: Key Scenarios
Team Points Status Outlook
Argentina 35 Qualified Play Messi’s emotional home farewell
Ecuador 25 Qualified Secured direct qualification
Brazil 25 Qualified Recovered under Ancelotti
Uruguay 24 Still in the hunt Needs results to stay in top 6
Paraguay 24 Still in contention A point likely seals direct qualification
Colombia 22 Motivated to qualify Must win to maintain hope
Venezuela 18 Currently in playoff spot Must win & rely on results
Bolivia 17 Long shot but alive Needs big results + help from others
Peru 12 Out of realistic contention Too far behind
Chile 10 No realistic path left Very slim mathematical chance
Final Takeaway
The CONMEBOL qualifying race is approaching its dramatic conclusion. Argentina, Ecuador, and Brazil are in — but Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia, and Venezuela are still battling hard for what’s left. Venezuela’s path is narrow but not closed yet, and upcoming fixtures may completely reshape the final standings.
Below is the break down,team-by-team scenarios and predictions for the current CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 qualifiers:
—
🇦🇷 Argentina (35 pts)
Status: Already qualified.
Scenario: No pressure, but Messi’s possible last qualifier makes this symbolic.
Prediction: Will likely beat Venezuela at home comfortably.
—
🇧🇷 Brazil (25 pts)
Status: Qualified.
Scenario: Carlo Ancelotti has stabilized the side.
Prediction: Strong chance of victory over Chile, especially at home.
🇪🇨 Ecuador (25 pts)
Status: Qualified.
Scenario: Safe in top 6, but fighting for higher seeding.
Prediction: Likely a draw vs Paraguay away — they’ll rely on defense.
🇺🇾 Uruguay (24 pts)
Status: Close to qualification.
Scenario: Needs a win vs Peru to lock in a direct spot.
Prediction: Uruguay should take all 3 points, given Peru’s struggles.
🇵🇾 Paraguay (24 pts)
Status: Very close to qualifying.
Scenario: A point vs Ecuador almost guarantees them a direct berth.
Prediction: A tight 1–1 draw seems most likely.
🇨🇴 Colombia (22 pts)
Status: Still in contention.
Scenario: A win vs Bolivia secures direct qualification. A draw keeps them in danger.
Prediction: Colombia should win at home in Barranquilla.
🇻🇪 Venezuela (18 pts)
Status: Playoff zone.
Scenario: Needs at least 4 points in last 2 matches, plus help from Colombia/Bolivia results.
Prediction: Hard to see them beating Argentina away, but they might still edge out Colombia in the final round to grab playoff hopes.
🇧🇴 Bolivia (17 pts)
Status: Slim chance.
Scenario: Must beat Colombia away and hope Venezuela slips.
Prediction: Very unlikely — probably eliminated after this round.
🇵🇪 Peru (12 pts) & 🇨🇱 Chile (10 pts)
Status: Effectively out.
Scenario: Only mathematical miracles keep them alive.
Prediction: Losses in upcoming matches will confirm elimination.
🔮 Predicted Results (Next Matches)
Argentina 2–0 Venezuela
Colombia 2–1 Bolivia
Paraguay 1–1 Ecuador
Uruguay 3–1 Peru
Brazil 3–0 Chile
📊 Projected Table After Next Round
1. Argentina – 38 pts ✅
2. Brazil – 28 pts ✅
3. Ecuador – 26 pts ✅
4. Uruguay – 27 pts ✅
5. Paraguay – 25 pts ✅
6. Colombia – 25 pts ✅
7. Venezuela – 18 pts (Playoff)
8. Bolivia – 17 pts ❌
9. Peru – 12 pts ❌
10. Chile – 10 pts ❌
⚡ So the likely outcome: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia qualify directly; Venezuela goes to the playoff.